Race 7 – SEN Underwood Stakes (1800m)
9 SIR DELIUS (GB) – $2.00 / $1.30
Maps to settle just off the speed with cover. French G1 form has stood up in Australia before, and his close second in the Chelmsford fresh showed he’s acclimatised and firing. Handles all ground, gets Williams on, and this trip suits second-up. Profiles as the class horse with upside to come.
10 MOIRA (CAN) – $5.50 / $2.10
Looks set to peak third-up. Wasn’t suited by the stop-start tempo in the So You Think but still powered through the line late. Proven at G1 level overseas and now gets Lane, a soft draw, and a rising tempo. Expecting her to settle midfield and chime in strongly at the 300m.
8 GOLDEN PATH (NZ) – $21 / $6.00
Finally got things to suit at Flemington and won with authority. Race shape looks similar here – a strong mid-race move could see him land outside the lead. Big query against the topliners, but loves this trip and gets a chance to control his own fate. Overs on map and talent.
Race 8 – Sportsbet Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m)
9 ANGEL CAPITAL – $3.30 / $1.60
Flying this prep and maps to stalk a hot speed. Last-start Chautauqua win was arrogant and backed by strong sectionals. Drops to 53.5kg here, gets Lane again, and returns to a track/distance where he’s unbeaten. Gate 13 the only knock, but tempo should allow him to blend in and pounce late.
5 ARKANSAW KID – $8.50 / $2.70
Racing in terrific heart. Finally broke through at Flemington with an aggressive ride and finds a similar map here from gate 1. Will box-seat behind genuine tempo and gets every chance in the run. Hard-fit and handles all ground – must include in all multiples.
16 SEPALS – $4.60 / $1.90
Lightly raced but stamped himself last prep with a dominant CS Hayes win. Resumed with authority over this track/trip and gets in with just 52kg. Craig Williams stays on, and the wide draw looks perfect for a swooper in this setup. Race shape brings him right into it.
Race 9 – Tobin Brothers Naturalism Stakes (2000m)
8 GILDED WATER (GB) – $2.90 / $1.40
Import who has made rapid progress since arriving. Hit the line strongly at Caulfield over 1800m and now gets to his pet trip. Zahra on, sticky gate manageable with early speed drawn inside. Two from two at the trip and maps to improve sharply second-up. Big watch.
2 BERKELEY SQUARE – $11 / $3.30
Peaked on his run last start but gets a strong setup here. Drawn wide, but likely drifts and follows a genuine tempo. Loves Caulfield and has a terrific record at this distance. Third-up and hard-fit. Looks set to peak and could surprise.
16 STATUARIO – $7.00 / $2.40
Emerging stayer who’s been holding form across the grades. Drawn wide again but rolls forward and puts himself in the race. Just missed in the Heatherlie and beat several of these home. 2000m suits and looks to get control from the front. Must be respected.
Race 10 – ive > Handicap (2000m)
5 KINGS VALLEY (IRE) – $5.50 / $2.00
Screaming to win one and gets a nice setup here. Maps forward from a wide draw and handles good or soft ground. Last start’s strong-closing second at The Valley rated well and now gets back to 2000m where he excels. Ticks boxes and peaking at the right time.
8 GILDED WATER (GB) – $2.90 / $1.40
Holding form this prep and backing up after a strong run in the Naturalism wouldn’t shock. If connections opt to run here instead, he carries less weight and draws better. Either way, he brings strong Euro form and profiles perfectly over 2000m. A serious winning hope again.
10 MR VERSE (IRE) – $4.60 / $1.80
Peaking now. Classy import who has improved with every run this prep. Will get back from the draw but handles pressure races and has a big finish. Stable rates him highly and gets Shinn to navigate. With the right tempo, he’ll be launching late.
The Professor’s Play:
Best Bet: SIR DELIUS (Race 7) – Profiles perfectly second-up and maps to stalk the speed. Class edge and ticks every box at the weights.
Value: SEPALS (Race 8) – Lightly raced talent who’s well placed with 52kg. Maps to swoop late in a high-pressure race. Set for this.
Each-Way: STATUARIO (Race 9) – Rock-hard fit and maps to roll forward in a race lacking tempo. Handles 2000m and looks ready to peak.
Quaddie Numbers:
Leg 1 (R7): 8, 9, 10
Leg 2 (R8): 5, 9, 16
Leg 3 (R9): 2, 8, 16
Leg 4 (R10): 5, 8, 10
