Race 7 – Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m)
1. Al Riffa – $7.00 win / $2.40 place
There’s a lot to like about Al Riffa’s late-season surge. The Irish St Leger win by four lengths stamped him a serious stayer, and while the Melbourne Cup is a different beast, he’s bred for this. The Wootton Bassett x Galileo (IRE) cross screams stamina and class. Importantly, he’s drawn wide but maps for a midfield trail with Zahra aboard – a perfect blend of patience and punch. Hasn’t been tried at two miles but hit the line strongly over 2816m twice. Will relish a genuine tempo and any softness underfoot. Expect him to be chiming in at the clock tower.
2. Buckaroo – $10.00 win / $3.30 place
This is a genuine set-play by the Waller camp. Buckaroo brings elite formlines via the Cox Plate, where he stormed late to just miss. His run prior in the Caulfield Stakes was full of merit given how soft the tempo was early. Now he rises sharply in trip, but being by Fastnet Rock out of a Galileo mare, that stamina is there. Williams on helps. He’ll get cover and give a sight.
8. Meydaan – $26.00 win / $6.50 place
Lightly raced and lightly respected by the market, but Meydaan could easily be the knockout. He lacked room in the Caulfield Cup and still found the line well enough. James McDonald sticks and that alone raises eyebrows. Frankel progeny can stay, and this bloke’s best might still be ahead of him. Include at odds.
24. Valiant King – $9.00 win / $2.90 place
Tough grey who’s taken the local path beautifully. The Bart Cummings win was arrogant and the third in the Caulfield Cup was full of grit. Maps well from barrier 10 with just 51kg and Jye McNeil knows how to time a ride in this race. Blinkers have sharpened him. Expect him to lob midfield and peel out with a full tank. Ticks every box for an each-way bet in the Cup.
Race 8 – Lexus Amanda Elliott (1400m)
2. Navy Pilot – $6.50 win / $2.40 place
Group 1-placed colt with a booming finish and the right jockey in James McDonald. Will appreciate the slight sting out of the track and maps nicely from gate 4. Forget the Caulfield Guineas – this is his wheelhouse. Clear top seed on class and setup.
7. Ripley – $6.50 win / $2.40 place
Ciaron Maher has this colt on the up. His debut prep was strong, and he resumed with a dominant maiden win followed by a respectable effort in the Gothic Stakes. Can sit closer from the draw. Big each-way threat.
8. Burma Star – $9.00 win / $3.20 place
Godolphin runner who is improving with every run. Proven in the wet and gets Moreira – that’s a big switch. Strong 2nd last start suggests he’s peaking third-up. Big watch.
15. Ludlum – $5.00 win / $2.10 place
Only lightly raced but doing everything right. Won stylishly second-up and has a booming turn of foot. The barrier is awkward, but if he gets cover, look out. Market support would only boost confidence.
Race 9 – The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (1400m)
5. Bossy Nic – $12.00 win / $3.80 place
Never runs a bad race and finally finds a slightly easier assignment. Drawn ideally and gets Moreira – could be saved up for one run late. Loves Flemington. Respect.
12. Stylish – $31.00 win / $7.50 place
Flying under the radar but her form around Mares grade is excellent. Will get back but if the rain comes, she’ll be savaging the line. Huge overs.
14. Pondalowie – $14.00 win / $4.20 place
Tough mare with fitness on her side. Can press forward from gate 4 and get the perfect sit. Continues to race well at Flemington. Honest chance at value.
15. Surfin’ Bird – $2.40 win / $1.40 place
Progressive type who’s done nothing wrong. On the quick back-up off a dominant win and maps perfectly here. The one to beat, but short enough. Anchor in exotics.
Race 10 – Channel 9 Trophy (1400m)
3. Ndola – $6.50 win / $2.30 place
Has found his rhythm and is racing in career-best form. Will sit midfield with cover and be strong late. Handles all conditions and the form around him is holding. Go well.
7. Sunshineinmypocket – $6.50 win / $2.30 place
Maps for a perfect trail behind the speed. Never runs poorly and this looks a race he can really strike in. Genuine winning hope.
8. Sabaj – $2.70 win / $1.50 place
Lightly raced, loaded with talent. Profiles perfectly here and Zahra takes the reins. This is the race they’ve been setting him for. Will take plenty of holding out.
14. He’ll Rip – $19.00 win / $5.00 place
Backmarker with a booming finish. If they overdo it up front, he’ll be the one charging late. Very capable on his day. Include in everything.
The Professor’s Plays
Best Bet: Race 10 – 8. Sabaj
Best Each Way: Race 7 – 24. Valiant King
Best Value: Race 9 – 12. Stylish
Quaddie – Races 7 to 10
Race 7: 1, 2, 8, 24
Race 8: 2, 7, 8, 15
Race 9: 5, 12, 14, 15
Race 10: 3, 7, 8, 14
