Race 6 – Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m)
1. Beiwacht – $3.80 win / $1.70 place
Golden Rose winner with a brilliant turn of foot. Waller has this colt peaking at the right time and despite not having won at 1200m, his sectionals suggest the drop in trip won’t be an issue. He’s strong late and has tactical speed. If he gets cover early from the wide gate, he can explode late and stamp himself a future star. Serious Group 1 upside.
3. Tentyris – $3.90 win / $1.75 place
Exploded onto the scene in the Todman and has continued to impress in top company. He was strong through the line in the Gothic Stakes, and Zahra jumping back on is a big tick. Proven at the trip, maps beautifully, and looks a genuine winning chance with the right run in transit.
9. Legacy Bound – $14 win / $3.90 place
Underrated colt who’s put together a very tidy record. Just missed in the Danehill and was strong through the line. He’s proven at Flemington, handles pressure, and draws for a soft run. Don’t be surprised if he’s steaming home into the placings at a nice price.
10. Beadman – $5.50 win / $2.10 place
Strong colt from the Snowden yard who was narrowly beaten in the Roman Consul. Races well at 1200m and has a solid SP profile in this grade. Blake Shinn takes over and he’s drawn to sit just off the speed. Should get every chance to run over the top late. Must respect.
Race 7 – Howden Victoria Derby (2500m)
1. Observer – $2.15 win / $1.30 place
Progressive colt who took out The Vase in dominant fashion after leading at a solid tempo. His Caulfield Guineas placing was full of merit, indicating his class and versatility. By Ghaiyyath, he’s bred to stay and looks perfectly suited rising to 2500m. Drawn to control the tempo again from barrier 4, and Zahra stays aboard. Everything points to him being the one to beat. The deserved favourite.
5. Options – $13 win / $3.50 place
Was building strongly through the grades before hitting a class ceiling last time out behind Observer. Closed hard in the Super Impose, and if he’s able to settle closer in the run, he can certainly feature in the finish. Godolphin colt with upside, but might need a perfect steer from Coffey to topple the top seed.
6. Providence – $6.50 win / $2.20 place
Waller-trained stayer who produced a career-best last start, hitting the line with purpose to grab second behind Observer in The Vase. He looks like he’s screaming out for the Derby trip and maps to get a trailing run midfield with cover. Williams is a master in these big races and the horse is still on the up.
16. Deal Done Fast – $34 win / $6.50 place
Lightly raced and might be here for the experience, but his effort in the Norman Robinson showed he’s heading the right way. While he’s likely to be outsprinted by the top tier, he can plug away and run a bold race at odds. Worth including in wider exotics if the tempo is truly testing.
Race 8 – TAB Empire Rose Stakes (1600m)
1. Pride Of Jenni – $5 win / $1.90 place
All heart. She’s one of Australia’s most electrifying front-runners and was enormous in the Feehan, dictating terms and kicking clear late. This is her pet trip, she’s well weighted, and if Bates gets away with even tempo fractions mid-race, she’ll take a stack of running down. Just needs a dry deck and a clean jump.
3. Abounding – $11 win / $3.20 place
Hard fit and coming off a dominant Tristarc win where she put them away with authority. Form out of the Tatts Tiara is holding up, and she’s drawn to box seat from gate 1. Still untapped at the mile and gives every impression she’ll see it out strongly.
6. Leica Lucy – $5 win / $1.80 place
High-class Kiwi mare who has returned superbly in her Australian campaign. Strong third in the Toorak under big weight and looks ready to peak third-up. She’s drawn well, gets Zahra, and brings elite staying credentials from the NZ Oaks. Must include.
10. Idle Flyer – $6.50 win / $2.10 place
Can’t knock her winning record this prep. Three starts, two wins and a narrow placing, all in fast time. She’s now a Group 3 winner and did it with authority. Drawn perfectly, handles all conditions, and Dee has options. Her turn of foot is a weapon.
Race 9 – Kirin Ichiban Sprint (1100m)
3. She’s Bulletproof – $7 win / $2.40 place
Fitter for two runs this campaign and last start’s Northwood Plume win was excellent, kicking clear when challenged. She handles the straight, draws soft, and Allen gets options. Looks ready to go bang again in a winnable sprint.
5. Stretan Angel – $10 win / $3.10 place
Explosive winner of the Alinghi and clearly back to her best. Tactically versatile and will be swooping down the outside. Neindorf knows her well. Could easily repeat if they overdo it up front.
10. New York Lustre – $11 win / $3.20 place
Flying under the radar this prep but hasn’t done much wrong. Strong placing behind Stretan Angel last start, and the blinkers go on. Might be the knockout runner at value.
13. Soft Love – $7.50 win / $2.50 place
Consistent as they come. Just missed in the Alinghi after a fast-finishing second from deep. Slightly better draw here and maps for a mid-pack trail. She’ll be launching late.
The Professor’s Plays
Best: Observer (Race 7)
Value: Abounding (Race 8)
Each-Way: Soft Love (Race 9)
Quaddie – Races 6–9
Leg 1 (R6): 1, 3, 9, 10
Leg 2 (R7): 1, 5, 6, 16
Leg 3 (R8): 1, 3, 6, 10
Leg 4 (R9): 3, 5, 10, 13
