Race 3 – Lindsey Smith Spicer Thoroughbreds BM70 Handicap (1700m)
Shiny New Deel – $4.00 win / $1.80 place
Back in business this prep and looks to be peaking nicely after stringing together some strong Sandown runs. Blake Shinn sticks, which is a statement in itself, and from barrier six he gets every chance to park just off speed and pounce late. His last-start win at the trip showed he can sustain pressure and still find a kick. On current form, he’s the one they’ll have to beat again.
Saxon Spot – $5.00 win / $2.00 place
Godolphin gelding with upside and the right kind of tactical speed for Geelong. Handles firm going, and his Flemington jumpout suggested he’s tightened up beautifully since his September win. He might need a touch of luck from the draw, but if Dee can slide across early and find cover, he’ll be right in this late.
Savilla (FR) – $5.00 win / $2.00 place
Has hit her straps since returning from a freshen and comes here off a soft win at Mornington. Carries weight but travels like a mare who can roll on speed and control her own race. If she gets a soft lead, she’ll be very hard to catch. The French-bred profile suits the mile-plus journey and she’s right in this.
Quello Dorato – $26.00 win / $5.50 place
Blinkers go on for the first time and that might just be the spark he needs. Has been running better than the numbers suggest and drops in grade here. The stable rarely misses when they tinker with gear. At a big price, he’s the blowout chance for exotics.
Race 4 – Ladbrokes Geelong Cup (2400m)
Gilded Water (GB) – $2.20 win / $1.30 place
Regally bred and racing like a horse with much bigger targets in sight. The Cranbourne stable has timed this prep perfectly – strong through the line at Caulfield, then a genuine staying test last start in The Bart Cummings where he stuck on gamely. Down in grade and weighted to perfection, he’s the benchmark.
Whisky On The Hill (GB) – $5.00 win / $2.00 place
Honest as the day is long and rarely puts in a bad one. Proven at the distance, handles all surfaces, and comes off a brave Herbert Power placing behind good types. Has the seasoning and staying strength to make this a real contest. Wouldn’t shock to see him topple the favourite.
Race 5 – Rex Gorell Volkswagen Dual Choice Plate (1200m)
Stoli Bolli – $2.50 win / $1.40 place
Speed to burn and a rails draw – Blake Shinn can park him just behind the pace and punch through late. Been ultra-consistent in town, and the return to country grade looks tailor-made. Expect him to assert dominance from the 200m and put them away. A real professional sprinter.
Proved (NZ) – $7.50 win / $2.60 place
Unbeaten in five and keeps answering every question asked. First-up here off a slick Cranbourne jumpout, she’ll likely spear forward and make them chase. The further she gets into prep, the tougher she becomes – definite winning chance if she gets across early.
Spione – $10.00 win / $3.00 place
Bit of an enigma but the talent is there. Handy fresh record and tuned up with a couple of solid Flemington jumpouts. From gate two he’ll stalk the leaders and be there to pounce if the tempo collapses late. Value hope.
Verdad – $18.00 win / $4.00 place
Class runner dropping back from tougher races. Hasn’t won below 1300m but his strength through the line could make him a threat if they go mad up front. Don’t dismiss the old boy completely.
Race 6 – The Sporting Globe Last Call BM78 Handicap (1500m)
Outta Compton – $13.00 win / $3.50 place
Loves to roll up on pace and make his own luck. Freshened since a few testing runs at metro level and now finds a race he can dominate. If he gets into a rhythm early, he’ll be bloody hard to run down.
Fridge Monster – $10.00 win / $3.00 place
Absolutely flying through the grades and keeps raising the bar. Does his best work when leading, and his last-start Sale win was pure control. Has a serious turn of foot when right, and with Jordan Childs aboard, he’ll give a huge sight.
Ruakaka Raider (NZ) – $16.00 win / $4.20 place
Needs to rediscover his best, but the blinkers off and tongue tie on could do the trick. Has talent to burn and a couple of minor gear tweaks might bring him back to life. Could surprise if the pace collapses.
Dubai Watch – $15.00 win / $4.00 place
Lightly raced type who loves the 1500m trip. Has built a nice little record and comes here fit and firing. Soft hands from Beau Mertens will help him find the right rhythm. Expect him to be thereabouts at the finish.
Rusty’s Plays
Best Bet: Stoli Bolli (Race 5)
Value: Shiny New Deel (Race 3)
Roughie: Quello Dorato (Race 3)
Quaddie (Races 3–6)
R3: 1, 2, 3, 11
R4: 5, 7
R5: 1, 7, 12, 13
R6: 1, 10, 13, 14
