Race 6 – 4:20PM – ESSENTIAL ASSET + FIRE BM64 HANDICAP (2000 METRES)
1 THEBUDGIESMUGLA (NZ) – $7.5
Kiwi staying type who’s only had four runs but already boasts two wins over the trip. Form out of NZ is always tricky to line up, but he was doing it tough in heavy conditions and still found a way. Baker brings him across and gets Gibbons on board with a soft draw. Could be thrown in the deep end here, but the upside is there.
3 JUST GO BANG – $16
Veteran of 33 starts who knows how to win and loves the trip. Has won at Hawkesbury and over 2000m, and gets in light with the apprentice claim. Hard to trust off recent form, but the two-back win at this track over the trip shows he can bounce back. Overs if he brings his A-game.
4 AFFERMATO (IRE) – $8
Turned the corner last start with a dominant win over 1800m here in good time. Loves being on pace and Morgan sticks. Has found his groove this prep and maps to lead again. Will give them something to catch. Top chance.
Race 7 – 4:55PM – BLAKES MARINE F&M BM64 HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
2 PRETTY TAVI (NZ) – $9
Consistent mare who handles all conditions and never far away. Two third placings over 1300m this prep suggest she’s knocking on the door. Gets weight relief with the claim and is drawn for a soft run. Can sneak into the money again.
6 WANDAYE – $16
Relatively lightly raced and appears to be on the up. Hit the line strongly last start over 1400m and drops back in trip here. Sherry takes over and the stable’s having a good run. Keep an eye on her at big odds.
8 EMILIA JANE (NZ) – $14
Hard to catch but has shown glimpses. Just missed two back over 1500m and the drop back to 1300m might suit. Drawn awkwardly but if the speed goes on, she’ll be finishing off. Place hope.
Race 8 – 5:30PM – CLARENDON TAVERN CG&E BM64 HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
4 BEND THE KNEE – $11
Old boy with over $300k in the bank and still racing well. Fitter for two runs back and drops in grade here. Loves 1300–1400m and Ford knows him well. Needs tempo but can surge late.
7 UNREAL EXPECTATION – $15
Progressive type with two wins from five starts and both over 1400m. Ran well in tougher company last time and gets a soft draw here. Plenty to like about his pattern and he’s capable of figuring again.
12 GREEN SPACES – $7.5
Still learning but looks a talent. Led and won smartly at Geelong then was outclassed in a strong 2YO race. This is much more suitable and Baker wouldn’t place him here without confidence. Big watch.
Rusty’s Picks
Best: AFFERMATO – On-speed, in-form and ready to peak again.
Next Best: GREEN SPACES – Drops in class and should give a sight.
Value: JUST GO BANG – Proven at the trip and track; massive overs if it clicks.
