Race 7 – Alinta Energy Crystal Mile (1600m)
Desert Lightning – $6.00 win / $2.25 place
A genuine Group 1 performer who was competitive in the Stradbroke and looks to have returned in strong touch this prep. His win here two back in the So You Think Stakes was tough, sitting on the pace and fending off good opposition. Forgive the Toorak run where tempo went against him. Back to a smaller field and a track where he’s proven, he’ll get the right run behind the leaders. Nolen knows him well, and he maps ideally to pounce turning for home. Ready to strike again.
Rise At Dawn – $4.20 win / $1.90 place
Outstanding 5yo who continues to elevate through the grades. His Doncaster effort was elite, and he’s since trialled superbly. Draws perfectly to control the race and will ensure a genuine tempo. Expect him to bounce off his Sydney runs with M Dee in the saddle. Handles all conditions and loves this trip. Hard to knock consistency and tactical versatility.
El Rocko – $14.00 win / $4.20 place
This Mornington tough nut has been in rare form, stringing together consistent runs at Caulfield and Sandown. Racing pattern means he’ll likely roll forward and make his own luck. He’s the type to grind away and stick on, and any sting out of the track enhances his chances. Jamie Mott’s booking signals intent—will give a big sight at odds.
Oh Too Good – $4.20 win / $1.95 place
Class mare flying this prep. Her Flemington win two back was dominant, then she put them away stylishly in the Ladies Day Vase. Gets her pet trip and Damian Lane retains the ride. Barrier 1 allows a soft map behind the speed—if she sees daylight early, she’ll be storming home. In superb touch and ready for another step up in grade.
Race 8 – Cirka McEwen Stakes (1200m)
Tropicus – $4.40 win / $1.85 place
The up-and-comer in the sprint ranks. Excellent in the Schillaci when only Giga Kick beat him. Has tactical speed to land on pace and kick off the bend. The Freedmans have him humming and Lane stays aboard. Fit, flying, and loves the Valley’s short straight. Expect him to take catching.
Charm Stone – $2.30 win / $1.40 place
The star mare who demolished them in the Manikato. Class edge here and is unbeaten at this track and trip. Shinn sticks and barrier 9 allows her to stay wide and sweep home. Proven at Group 1 level and peaking in form—she’s the benchmark.
Niance – $5.50 win / $2.10 place
Ultra-reliable sprinter who always gives her all. Finished just behind the top two last start and gets her chance again. From the good draw she can sit midfield and produce a strong burst late. A Valley win is close—she’s too honest to leave out.
Bridal Waltz – $7.50 win / $2.60 place
Another Moody runner with a serious engine. Excellent second in the Gilgai and has been airborne this prep. Can take advantage of a genuine tempo and launch late. A mare on the rise with a lethal finish—massive player if they overdo it up front.
Race 9 – Drummond Golf Vase (2040m)
Observer – $2.00 win / $1.30 place
Godolphin colt who’s thriving with racing. Excellent Guineas placing behind Autumn Boy and Planet Red—now steps to 2000m which looks ideal. Zahra replaces Brown and barrier 9 should allow him to slot in midfield. His sustained speed makes him a serious Derby prospect. Hard to beat.
Options – $6.00 win / $2.10 place
Progressive stayer with a big engine. Has built momentum through the grades and was brave winning the Super Impose. Coffey’s riding with confidence and he’s bred to stay. The Valley will test him but expect him to be strong late.
O’Sheamus – $17.00 win / $4.80 place
Sydney visitor with upside. Finally broke through last start in style and gets Lane aboard which catches the eye. Maps beautifully and could stalk the speed. A real improver who might surprise at a big price.
Savisanta – $21.00 win / $5.50 place
Still a maiden but showing sharp progression. Placed in all three starts and shapes as a genuine stayer in the making. Drawn well, Melham sticks, and Waller has a knack for peaking them at the right time. Don’t ignore in exotics.
Race 10 – Ladbrokes Cox Plate (2040m)
Antino – $3.80 win / $1.60 place
Queenslander who’s turned into a genuine heavyweight at Group 1 level. Has been superb this prep with top-four finishes in elite company. Blake Shinn knows how to time his run to perfection and the small field suits. Expect him to settle just behind the speed and unleash late.
Via Sistina – $2.15 win / $1.25 place
The international queen and deserved favourite. Dominant in the Queen Elizabeth and Winx Stakes and thrives at 2000m. McDonald’s confidence is sky-high and Waller has kept her fresh for this grand final. Superior class and acceleration—simply the one they all have to beat.
The Professor’s Plays
Best Bet: Via Sistina (Race 10)
Value Play: El Rocko (Race 7)
Each-Way: Tropicus (Race 8)
Quaddie – Races 7–10
R7: 3, 4, 6, 8
R8: 3, 5, 7, 8
R9: 1, 3, 6, 13
R10: 2, 6
