Race 5 – BM64 Handicap (1600m)
2 Xtra Rush ($1.70)
Lightly raced with an unblemished record from two starts, Xtra Rush has looked the part at both 1600m and 1700m. He’s drawn well, carries weight, and is bred to keep progressing through the grades. The way he put them away at Sale suggests he’s capable of controlling the race tempo and letting down strongly. Short odds, but justified — he looks a horse going places.
4 Another Nephew ($6.50)
Honest type who has danced a lot of dances at this level. He’s fit, experienced, and will get every chance sitting midfield with cover. The concern is that he doesn’t always finish off his races at the mile, but his strong effort at Sale two starts back keeps him in calculations. If the favourite wobbles, he’s the one who can grind into it.
5 Leg Drive ($12)
Progressive gelding who broke through at the mile but has been a touch inconsistent since. Best runs have come when ridden quietly and allowed to build momentum. Drawn to get a soft run here, but he’ll need to show a stronger turn of foot against sharper opposition. He’s one for the multiples rather than a win bet.
Rusty’s Take:
Xtra Rush ($1.70) looks to have a class edge and should remain unbeaten. Another Nephew ($6.50) is the danger if the favourite gets stuck in traffic, while Leg Drive ($12) is more a place hope.
Race 6 – BM64 Handicap (1400m)
4 Emmcee ($7)
Still raw but showing signs of ability, Emmcee gets blinkers on for the first time — often a signal of intent from the Hayes stable. His maiden win at Pakenham synthetic was dominant, and though he was found out at Sandown last start, the drop back to 1400m suits. If the blinkers sharpen him up, he can be right in the finish.
3 Norwoods ($34)
Outsider of the field, but there’s some hidden merit in his profile. He’s a Mornington winner and has placed twice at the track over similar trips. However, recent form has been patchy, and he tends to mix his runs. Needs everything to go his way, but with a light claim he could sneak into the top four at odds.
7 Big Kate ($23)
Tough mare who has made a career of competing at this trip. She’s better than her recent figures suggest, having been caught wide or out of position. From barrier 1, she maps to get a lovely run in behind the leaders. If she produces her best, she can surprise at each-way odds.
Rusty’s Take:
A tricky race, but the blinkers going on Emmcee ($7) could be the key. Big Kate ($23) appeals as a value danger with the inside draw, while Norwoods ($34) looks a roughie for wider exotics.
Race 8 – BM64 Handicap (1200m)
1 Regal Might ($4.20)
Carries the big weight but brings consistent city and provincial form. He’s already a winner at this track and trip and tends to run well fresh into a prep. With a 3kg claim to offset the impost, he should be rolling forward and proving hard to run down.
7 Espinho ($4.40)
Another lightly raced type with upside, Espinho is bred well and has shown glimpses of real quality. He’s been strong in soft conditions and comes here off a solid placing last start. The wide draw makes things awkward, but with clear running he’s a serious chance.
12 Mordialloc Beach ($14)
Still learning her trade but has the profile of a mare who will keep improving with racing. She’s a Mornington winner over this trip and has shown she can hold her spot in stronger fields. At double-figure odds, she looks an each-way play, especially if the speed up front collapses.
Rusty’s Take:
Regal Might ($4.20) is well placed to assert his class, Espinho ($4.40) has the upside to win if he gets luck from the draw, and Mordialloc Beach ($14) is the blowout chance who could storm home late.
Final Word
Best Bet: Xtra Rush (Race 5) – $1.70
Best Value: Big Kate (Race 6) – $23.00
Roughie: Mordialloc Beach (Race 8) – $14.00
