Race 4 – The Agency Real Estate Handicap (1800 metres)
3 CAPTAIN MAVERICK – $11 – Forgive the last-start fadeout when second-up on a Good track, which doesn’t play to his strength. Ratings prior were consistent, and he maps to settle midfield with cover from gate 11. Four straight 2nds before that including in BM78 grade, and profiles well back to this level. Suited up to 1800m, especially if the tempo is genuine. Has tactical flexibility and the Osmond claim keeps him in the game.
5 SIRIUS LEGEND – $7 – Untapped upside. Comes off two wins over 1500m and 1600m, and now rises to 1800m third-up. Shapes like the extra ground suits on breeding and pattern. Progressive 4yo with a turn of foot, maps to settle just off midfield and can let rip late. Trial form and sectionals hold up. Genuine chance.
7 UNITED KINGDOM – $4.80 – Solid return through the line last start. Should be fitter now and gets McDonald on from a better draw. Shapes to stalk the speed with an economical run in transit. Proven at the trip and stable has placed him to peak. Expecting him to surge into the finish late.
Race 5 – QMS Handicap (1400 metres)
3 FORECASTER – $11 – Honest galloper who brings strong Midway form. Proven to run bold races near the speed, and maps to control the tempo or sit handy. Fitness isn’t an issue and Rachel King knows him well. BM78 form reads well for a drop into this company. Overlay if track plays forward.
6 PONY SOPRANO – $8 – Versatile type who has won first-up and second-up before. Racing pattern suggests he’ll be up on the speed and gets the weight relief with the claim. Ran well here last time in a Highway and brings a solid fitness base off two trials and a 1400m placing. Tough and competitive. Maps well.
7 SARRISMO – $2 – Classy. Two wins from three and was dominant last start, gapping them late. Maps midfield but McDonald onboard is a major tick. Strong closing sectionals and bred to get this trip. Drawn ideally to blend in at the right time and looks ready to go on with it.
Race 6 – Alinta Energy Handicap (1200 metres)
6 THEBLADE – $3.70 – Highly promising. Wasn’t far off in town in deeper races and resumes here off strong trials. Profiles like a horse with upside and has tactical speed to take a position. Soft track winner who can handle conditions. Drawn well. Respect if money comes.
7 JACOB’S LADDER – $12 – Building nicely this prep. Hit the line well last start and will appreciate the sting out. Back onto a firm deck and maps for the right run. Trainer places them well mid-prep and he’s now deep into fitness. Could spring a minor upset.
9 BURMA STAR – $3.30 – Talented colt from the Waller camp with a booming turn of foot. J-Mac retains the ride. Looked sharp winning at Warwick Farm and gets the right set-up to go on with it. Will be giving a start but if they run along, he’ll be strong late. One to follow.
The Professor’s Plays:
Best Bet:
SARRISMO (Race 5) – Unbeaten at 1300m and simply outclassed them last start. Looks like he’ll relish 1400m and maps perfectly for J-Mac to control the finish.
Value:
FORECASTER (Race 5) – Midway form reads well and he maps to get a soft run near the speed. Can kick on and give a bold sight at a price.
Each-Way:
CAPTAIN MAVERICK (Race 4) – Gets the map, gets the claim, and brings rock-solid BM78 form. Will be finishing hard. Worth an each-way ticket.
