Race 1 – 3YO Maiden Plate, 1400m – $100,000
1. Freddie Bassett – $8.00
Showed promise on debut over this trip when running on late into second. The colt is still raw but bred to appreciate more ground, so 1400m first-up was a strong starting point. If the tempo is genuine, he’ll be closing hard again and is a logical improver.
2. Scoop The Pool – $3.40
Debuted in a strong Rosehill maiden where he made late ground behind Queen Of Clubs. That form has already been franked, and with James McDonald taking the reins from a low draw, he maps to settle closer. Looks the yardstick in this field.
8. Tuscany – $4.40
Well-supported in provincial maidens and gets the Waterhouse & Bott polish. Expect him to roll forward and make his own luck, but his task is made trickier by a wide gate. Fitness edge and intent are in his favour, but he’s still learning his craft.
Professor’s View:
Scoop The Pool ($3.40) has the race experience and profile to measure up quickly in town. Freddie Bassett ($8.00) appeals as the improver, while Tuscany ($4.40) gives himself every chance on speed. My preference is Scoop The Pool to break through.
Race 2 – 3YO Maiden Handicap, 1200m – $60,000
2. Barbarossa – $15.00
Finally broke his maiden at Kembla on heavy ground after several attempts in stronger company. He’s tough and genuine, but he’ll need to absorb pressure up front, and this looks a deeper contest.
4. Ohope – $4.40
Godolphin colt who resumed at Hawkesbury and put the race away smartly. Has the turn of foot you want to see stepping into city grade, and his racing manners suggest he’s only going to keep improving. From a soft draw, he looks primed.
8. Surf’s Up – $11.00
Waller-trained filly who has shown talent in two starts, including a close second here at Warwick Farm. She’s adaptable on varying surfaces and will be running on strongly, though she may find Ohope’s acceleration a touch sharp.
Professor’s View:
Ohope ($4.40) stands out as the progressive runner and looks the one with genuine upside. Surf’s Up ($11.00) is the value if tempo plays into her hands, while Barbarossa ($15.00) has honesty but may find this harder.
Race 7 – Benchmark 72 Handicap, 1000m – $60,000
1. Take The Rap – $16.00
A proven 1000m specialist with five career wins at the trip. Brings plenty of experience and toughness, but he meets a sharp field and may lack the tactical speed of the younger brigade. Needs the race run to suit.
7. Pallaton – $2.40
Announced himself with a debut win in a $160k Randwick juvenile and has since tackled black-type company. His Rosebud run was excellent against higher-class opposition, and this is a marked drop in grade. With tactical speed and fitness on his side, he looks very well placed.
8. Shalaa Gold – $3.50
Honest type who rarely runs a bad race and already has a Warwick Farm win to his name. Consistently around the mark but has a habit of finding one better. The obvious danger if the favourite falters.
Professor’s View:
Pallaton ($2.40) has a clear class edge and the race maps well for him to dominate. Shalaa Gold ($3.50) is the logical threat, while Take The Rap ($16.00) brings value for multiples if the tempo collapses.
Professor’s Final Analysis
Best Bet: Pallaton (Race 7) – $2.40
Best Each Way: Scoop The Pool (Race 1) – $3.40
Best Value: Take The Rap (Race 7) – $16.00
