Race 1 – TAB PLATE (1200 METRES)
1 MAQUISA – $12
Returns to maiden grade after holding her own in BM64s. Gets back to her home track and draws the fence. Maps to box seat if she begins cleanly. Peak fitness now and comes out of some good form references. Genuine knockout chance if the tempo is right.
5 HELLABELLA – $6
Straight to the front and rolls. Has shown natural speed and improvement through the campaign. Was run down late in last two by fillies with upside. Gets map advantage again and fitness to match. Must be respected off the back of race-shape favours.
13 SURF’S UP – $4.2
Building a strong base of figures and brings the map with her. Drawn to land midfield with cover and shown versatility in pattern. Previous runs at track/distance hold up strongly and she profiles as the one launching late if they overdo it up front. Ready to win.
Race 5 – ASAHI SUPER DRY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
4 ZOUNAKA – $21
Resumes off solid trials and maps for cover despite wide gate. Rates well fresh and handles good tracks. The step up to 1200m might test late, but she’s capable of punching above her weight when given the right tempo. Can sneak into exotics with a tow into it.
5 HEESEN – $9.5
Progressive mare who returns with gear changes. Trialled up sharply and likely finds a prominent spot from barrier 10. Has tactical speed and strong mid-race splits from previous wins. If she’s tuned up, she’s in this longer than the market might suggest.
8 GIRIJAALA – $19
Sound enough in her debut prep and trialled with intent. Likely ridden quietly from the draw and builds late. Small sample size but has some upside and may be suited to a fast-run 1200m. Watch market for intent from a stable that can produce fresh.
Race 6 – CASINO PRINCE @ VINERY STUD HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
2 ISLAND DREAM – $4
Versatile mare with strong figures and a winning profile. Maps to land a pair or two back with McDonald on, which is ideal. Peak fit, handles good tracks, and carries the weight well. Right set-up to control the race from off the speed. The one to beat.
12 UNITED KINGDOM (NZ) – $14
Mixes his form but hard to ignore when he lands in the right spot. Up to the mile suits and trialled soundly prior to resumption. From the draw, maps back but could surge into it if the gaps come. Has been competitive in stronger. Worth keeping safe.
13 OFFICIATE – $10
Still untapped and looks a serious improver from the Waller barn. Drawn sticky but has tactical versatility. Back to a mile after a strong maiden win over 1550m and that race has already produced winners. If he gets across without burning, he’ll be strong late.
The Professor’s Play:
Best Bet: ISLAND DREAM (Race 6) – Maps ideally with the top rider aboard and brings the best last-start figure. All conditions suit.
Value: MAQUISA (Race 1) – Back in grade, drawn the fence and fit now. Looks set to run a bold race at double figures.
Each-Way: HEESEN (Race 5) – Trialled well and gets in light. Can camp on speed and give a kick off a soft tempo.
